"The current situation is that 200 000 extra households are now living in formal housing (or its yards) designed for one family only while another 150 000 families are living in informal settlements. The total backlog on formal subsidised housing, therefore, is in the region of some 400 000 homes.

"As the annual supply of subsidised housing (the only housing that the poor can afford) is 6000 to 8000 units, the backlog in subsidised formal housing is likely to increase by nearly 20 000 per annum."

Where, therefore do 'the rest' of Cape Town?s people go? Obviously to informal settlements, and these, said Greeff, have to be accepted by the more affluent sections of the population as part of the solution.

Here too, however, there are problems because, for obvious reasons, the authorities cannot allow squatting on, or land invasions of, much of the open ground ? even if they actually own it. Furthermore, shacks in informal settlements often cannot be extended, either because this is stipulated in the owner?s property rights or because they are already packed cheek-by-jowl close together.

As a result, while those who were the first 'in' now legally own their shacks, all others are forced to pay them, or owners of subsidised formal housing, high rents to find somewhere to live.

Hard to extend informal settlements

"Adlard?s report," said Greeff, "shows that because extensions to informal settlements have been so difficult to achieve, on average every ten poor households now have another eight living with them ? and this figure can only increase."

Adlard, said Greeff, has also shown that often the major threat to those living in informal settlements comes from others in the area who were there earlier either in subsidised formal housing nearby or in the original shacks and who, understandably, resent the downgrading of their area and the strain on basic services such as sewerage that the later arrivals cause.

A further major difficulty facing those in informal settlements, said Greeff, is the often inconvenient location of such communities ? they are far from places where work might be found and lack schools, clinics, creches and other social services. Often even one or two hours? walk will not be enough to find a place where work might be available.

Accept existing settlements, plan new ones

Asked what he suggests might alleviate the situation, Greeff said that the first step has to be acceptance of most existing informal settlements and the allocation of new areas with suitable buffer strips for new settlements under controlled conditions.

A second step, he said, could be the recognition that private enterprise firms with RDP development experience have to be encouraged once again to become part of the delivery process. Their track records have in many cases been far better than those of the municipalities. This, however, Greeff believes, should be done under the watchful eye of a vigilant state 'guard dog' who would have the power to act fast and mercilessly in the case of corruption or exploitation (Click here to learn more about severe corruption plaguing the state's provision of housing).

"The picture is not altogether gloomy," said Greeff. "One of the encouraging statements in Adlard?s report is that informal settlements initiated with the correct controls and with the services already installed can become attractive workable communities. It is not so much the settlements themselves as the severe overcrowding in them that has always been the fundamental problem."

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