Oversupply and price deflation still evident

Although house price deflation was widespread in many parts of Cape Town in the second quarter of 2009 (using deeds data to estimate), there were indeed a few areas that appeared to have started diminishing year-on-year price deflation as demand picked up:

  • Cape Town-Fishoek-Simonstown (average price = R1.137-million) showed a slight price deflation of -0.4 percent y/y in Q2 2009. This means that, to date, this sub-region appears to have experienced the least price deflation of any of the metro?s sub-regions and it is believed that land scarcity around Table Mountain has contributed to this through preventing a major oversupply of new stock from having been created during the property boom years.

  • Out to the North of the metro, where land is seemingly more plentiful, and a major supply of new stock was created in the boom years, price deflation appears more widespread. Milnerton-Melkbosstrand (average price = R774 659) showed price deflation of -4.8 percent y/y in Q2 2009, while Goodwood-Parow-Bellville-Kuilsriver (average price = R811 655) showed price deflation of -3.2 percent y/y. Brackenfell-Kraaifontein-Durbanville (avgerage price = R773 467) showed deflation of -3.1 percent y/y. However, all three areas? deflation rates, while still significant, reflected improvements on the previous quarter.

  • Of the former apartheid-era 'township' areas, the Cape Metro former coloured areas (avgerage price = R279 990) showed price deflation of -3.5 percent y/y in Q2 2009. The former black township areas of the Khayelitsha-Gugulethu region (avgerage price = R228 380) still showed huge price inflation of +26.6 percent, although decelerating.

  • The Cape Metro as a whole (avgerage price = R881 102) showed price deflation of -1.5 percent y/y in Q2 2009

Interpretation/conclusion on page three...