Selling in order to downscale due to financial pressure declined slightly in importance, dropping from 34 percent of total selling to 28 percent from the second quarter of 2009 to the third. Simultaneously, selling in order to upgrade rose slightly from five percent of total selling to eight percent over the same period. These are not major moves, but it is believed that this might well be the start of a trend towards better numbers, with the interest rate cuts to date expected to have a more significant impact in terms of alleviating the pressure on households as a whole.

As a percentage of total selling, emigration selling in Durban showed a massive surge during 2008, similar to the trend in other metros, but seemingly more extreme than the likes of the Gauteng metros or Cape Town. After a peak of 29 percent in the third quarter of 2008, there has been a broad decline in emigration selling?s significance to only eight percent of total selling by the third quarter of this year, according to the estate agents surveyed.

Oversupplies and price deflation continues

Despite some improvement in residential demand in recent times, oversupplies on the market were still significant as at the second quarter (Deeds data running a bit behind), resulting in widespread price decline continuing across much of the eThekwini region. This can be expected to start turning for the better in the numbers for the second half of the year.

• The Durban area, including Umhlanga/Mount Edgecombe in the North, Durban Central and Isipingo to the South, (avgerage price = R860 976) showed zero percent price change year-on-year (y/y) in Q2 2009, down from 2.8 percent in the previous quarter?s revised number.

• The Westville-Pinetown-Upper Highway region (avgerage price = R916 470) showed price deflation of -6.2 percent y/y in the second quarter, a deterioration from -4.5 percent in the previous quarter. Bordering Durban to the North and the South, the two coastal towns of Amanzimtoti and Umdloti (avgerage price = R1.014-million) showed a deflation rate of -1.6 percent y/y in the second quarter, a deterioration from -1.9 percent.

• Traditionally strong Indian areas have been showing similar weakness to the former white areas. The Phoenix-Verulam-Tongaat region (average price = R385 323) showed two percent price change y/y, while Chatsworth (avgerage price = R405 528) experienced second quarter price decline of ?six percent y/y.

• eThekwini?s former Black Townships (average price = R242 240) still showed the best price inflation of all of the regions, to the tune of 9.2 percent y/y in the second quarter, but the rate of de-celeration is now rapid, with the rate having declined from the previous quarter?s 16.7 percent.

Interpretation/Conclusion on page three...